(cont from previous post - updated 1/10/13)
His bottom line here is
absolutely correct - the fit between these three groups was never good, and the
alliance has come nearly undone today.
- Banks
& business signed on enthusiastically for a platform that advanced
their interests and gave them the moral high ground for out producing the
Soviets at the same time. But when the threat of Communist attack ended, and
the opportunities of economic globalization emerged, business found itself at
odds with the idea of purely American interests. Banks and financiers in
particular have absolutely no solution for the global economic challenges to
the American worker in the 21st century. All the bumper stickers about "cut
taxes and grow jobs" have turned out to be complete nonsense when facing
the sheer scale of international competition (exacerbated by irresponsible
risks by industry, and run-away deficit and debt by government). You can't cut
enough taxes to make GM quit Mexico where they are paying workers $7 an hour
and return to Detroit where they pay $55 an hour. As was clear from the Romney
campaign, big business and in particular the banks have nothing attractive to
say to Americans about the economy. They just repeat what Hoover said:
"Have patience until the economy sorts itself out." That approach didn’t work then; it won’t work
now. Meanwhile the wealth of workers and
retirees disappears while big executives do just fine. The business/banking/financing
wing of conservatism controls all the levers of the Republican machine, but they have no
message for voters - none at all.
- Meanwhile, the neo-cons of the security wing are more bankrupt than FANNIE MAE.
They were really born out of the WW II experience of dealing with German and
Japanese Totalitarianism, and its new birth in Soviet Totalitarianism. This is
why Israel and Jewish American participation was so important -- they shaped
the strategic arguments to prevent a repetition of WW II and the Holocaust. But
it turned out that this world view had less relevance to the world that
emerged after the Wall came down in 1989. When the neo-cons tried to apply
their ideas to Iraq and Afghanistan /Pakistan, the result was military and
strategic disappointment. Their approach accounted for hostile ideologies. They had less success against hostile religions and race based strategies (China, etc.) -- except
to suggest a long tactical struggle as we are seeing in Israel.
(It is interesting that Kurth
misses the important role of Israel and American Jews in the conservative security
wing. Perhaps he found this analysis too sensitive to say aloud. But from 1955
until 2005, American Jews played a decisive role in conservative security programs,
research, education, publications, think tanks, theory, and in DOD and
Republican administrations themselves. It is not an exaggeration to say this group was essential to strategic victory in the Cold War. This is an important point, because many
of the leading figures in this community had significant differences with their
conservative business and social/religious partners. But these differences were
patched over until the Cold War ended and the neo-con approach to security in
the New World Disorder failed. Whether this important relationship can be reestablished remains an open question. )
- And finally, the money and security
conservatives have been playing bait-and-switch on the social conservatives for 55 years. Kurth is absolutely right that
the only success the Republicans gave the social conservatives in nearly 6
decades of fervent support was a thin temporary majority on the Supreme Court .
. . which could only stop the bleeding from current liberal decisions, but not
reverse those in the past. When it became clear in the 1990’s that the Republicans
were not going to advance the values of religious conservatives, and the
social/religious forces would have to make their arguments against drugs,
abortion and homosexuality on their own, they proved incapable of doing so. The
fact is that Western Christianity has simply not found a message that
discourages people (and especially young people) from sex, drugs and rock and
roll. Social conservatives needed the law to perform that function. Once out-flanked
by liberals in law schools and on the Supreme Court, they have been unable to
regain the intellectual high-ground on their own.
And finally - bravo to
this author for being the first one to make a point that I have been making
locally for 2 years. Obama care and increasing taxes (especially the death tax)
serve the clear progressive purpose of removing older white people from the
system, while confiscating their money for redistribution to others. In the
face of this threat to older white social conservatives, the big money and
security conservatives have no solutions to offer . . . or even any interest in
the issue. Aging social conservatives may call Congress, but no one is
answering the phone.
By putting all this
together, the author does make a good case for the end of conservatism and the
Republican party as we knew it before 2008.
BUT -- news flash --
history is not over.
- An economic crisis is
coming - you cannot forever print money to keep interest rates at zero so you
can borrow more than you create.
- A foreign policy
crisis is coming -- a nuclear Iran, a toppled Saudi monarchy, a war between
Japan and China, a crisis with the cartels on our border, a broad Muslim
uprising in Europe - a major security crisis is coming -- maybe even at home
- A domestic moral
crisis is coming -- we are raising monsters and sooner or later this will reach
a tipping point.
And who knows what other
flash points we might see based on Progressive overreach and fringe response: confiscation
of weapons; refusal to enforce specific laws (like those having to do with
drugs and immigration); murder of a popular figure because of race, or faith or
politics, sexual orientation; seizure of control over financial or information
resources; domestic WMD attack. The list
goes on. Given the right crisis and the
wrong response, Progressivism could lose ground to articulate and well informed
conservatives. The public that elected
Herbert Hoover in 1928 abandoned him in 1932 and for the next 20 years. A
similar reversal against the Progressives after a major national trauma is
certainly possible.
I actually think it is as likely that social
conservatives might throw the big money guys under the bus to reshape the
conservative cause as the other way round. After all, social conservatives are
already predisposed to find common interest with security conservatives. And
they have a compelling emotional message which may grow more attractive as the
information revolution brings the effects of political corruption to see the
light of day.
So the future national
story line is yet to be written. It could well be about corruption, prosecution, and reform, championed by a
resurgent Republican Party focused on moral and security issues, after their
abandonment of the banks and industry as unreliable partners.
And that’s not what Kurth
expects at all.